What is the intrinsic value of Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO)?

Mixed results. This company may not have a durable competitive advantage. Valuo applies Buffett DCF, Graham Number, Lynch PEGY, and Rule #1 frameworks to calculate buy targets and margin of safety for MRO.

Should I buy MRO at the current price?

Based on Buffett's framework analysis, MRO has a Avoid recommendation with a Buffett score of 50%. This combines signals from four investor models — each calculates a fair value and margin of safety to determine whether the current price offers a good entry point.

What is the Buffett score for MRO?

MRO has a Buffett score of 50% on Valuo. This score reflects how well the company meets Warren Buffett's investment criteria: durable competitive advantage, strong return on equity, consistent earnings growth, and a price below intrinsic value.

Are insiders buying MRO stock?

In recent SEC Form 4 filings, MRO insiders made 0 open-market purchases and 0 sales. Valuo shows the full insider and congress trading timeline for MRO.

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Is Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO) Undervalued? Valuation & Fair Price

At $28.55, the frameworks are split on Marathon Oil Corporation today — Benjamin Graham and Peter Lynch rate it Buy and Warren Buffett and Phil Town (Rule #1) rate it Avoid. Each model calculates its own fair value and margin of safety; create a free account to see the exact buy price behind every verdict.

Marathon Oil Corporation

MRO

Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · NYSE

$28.55

P/E 11.2×

CEO

Lee M. Tillman

Sector

Energy

Industry

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Website

www.marathonoil.com

Marathon Oil Corporation operates as an independent upstream energy company, primarily focusing on exploration, development, and production activities within the United States and international markets. The firm is engaged in discovering, extracting, and commercializing crude oil, condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas. Additionally, it manufactures and sells refined natural gas products such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) and methanol. Its operational assets include 32 central gathering and treatment facilities, along with the Sugarloaf natural gas pipeline, a 42-mile system traversing Karnes and Atascosa Counties. Established in 1887, the company was formerly USX Corporation before rebranding to Marathon Oil Corporation in December 2001. Its corporate headquarters are located in Houston, Texas.

Investor scorecard

How the four investors rate Marathon Oil Corporation

A split decision across the frameworks

Warren Buffett

50%Avoid

Benjamin Graham

57%Buy

Peter Lynch

72%Buy

Phil Town (Rule #1)

36%Avoid

Investor model analysis

Details locked

At $28.55, 2 of 4 frameworks say Buy

Business Quality54/100

Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Warren Buffett's valuation model · select an investor above to switch

Intrinsic Value

Buy Below

Strong Buy

Margin of Safety

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Insider & congress activity

Are insiders buying MRO?

Over recent SEC Form 4 filings, MRO insiders bought $2K and sold $31.0M of stock across 23 open-market trades. Insiders sell for many reasons, but they buy for one.

Bought $2KSold $31.0M

Recent open-market insider trades for MRO
Insider	Action	Shares	Value	Date
WAGNER PATRICKSee Remarks	Sell	36,094	$1.0M	Nov 19, 2024
TILLMAN LEE MChairman, President and CEO	Sell	256,591	$7.5M	Nov 18, 2024
Whitehead Dane ESee Remarks	Sell	52,008	$1.4M	Sep 18, 2024
Henderson Michael AExecutive VP, Operations	Sell	38,000	$1.0M	Sep 6, 2024
WAGNER PATRICKSee Remarks	Sell	36,094	$998K	Mar 27, 2024

Members of Congress have also reported 15 trades in MRO. See the full insider & congress timeline.

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Open-market buys & sells only. Not investment advice.

See the interactive insider chart & every trade

Scenario analysis

Bear, base & bull

Three growth assumptions, three fair values — and where today's price lands

What's working

Key strengths

Identified by Buffett framework analysis

Debt Levels

Gross Margin

Net Profit Margin

Risk factors & concerns — free account

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Company financials

5-Year Financials

Income statement highlights — annual, USD

Source: 10-K filings

Metric	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Revenue	$6.4B	$7.5B	$5.6B	$3.1B	$5.1B
Rev. Growth	-15.0%	+34.6%	+80.9%	-38.8%	—
Net Income	$1.6B	$3.6B	$946M	-$1.5B	$480M
Net Margin	24.3%	47.9%	16.9%	-46.9%	9.5%
EPS (Diluted)	$2.56	$5.27	$1.20	$-1.83	$0.59
Free Cash Flow	Locked — upgrade to view	Locked — upgrade to view	Locked — upgrade to view	Locked — upgrade to view	Locked — upgrade to view	FCF & more — free account

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See the complete picture for MRO

Exact buy targets, margin of safety, detailed investor checklists, and risk breakdown — all frameworks, all numbers.

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Educational Use Only · Not Financial Advice

Analysis, scores, valuations, and buy zones are derived from publicly documented investor frameworks (Buffett, Lynch, Benjamin Graham, Phil Town) for learning purposes only. They are not recommendations from licensed financial advisors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.