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Is Vistra Corp. (VST) Undervalued? Valuation & Fair Price

At $161.48, 4 of the 4 frameworks would pass on Vistra Corp. today — Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, and Phil Town (Rule #1) rate it Avoid. Each model calculates its own fair value and margin of safety; create a free account to see the exact buy price behind every verdict.

VS

Vistra Corp.

VST

Utilities · Independent Power Producers · NYSE

$161.48

P/E 24.5×

CEO

James A. Burke

Sector

Utilities

Industry

Independent Power Producers

Vistra Corp., along with its various holdings, functions as a unified entity primarily engaged in retail electricity supply and power generation. The company organizes its operations across six distinct segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It directly provides electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial clients throughout 20 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. Beyond its retail endeavors, Vistra also participates in generating electricity, facilitating wholesale energy transactions, managing commodity-related risks, producing fuel, and overseeing fuel logistics. With approximately 4.3 million customers, Vistra commands an impressive generation capacity of about 38,700 megawatts. This capacity is sustained by a diverse portfolio of facilities, including those powered by natural gas, nuclear energy, coal, solar, and advanced battery energy storage systems. The enterprise, initially known as Vistra Energy Corp., adopted its current name, Vistra Corp., in July 2020. Tracing its origins back to 1882, Vistra Corp. maintains its corporate headquarters in Irving, Texas.

Investor scorecard

How the four investors rate Vistra Corp.

4 of 4 frameworks urge caution

Warren Buffett
39%Avoid
Benjamin Graham
14%Avoid
Peter Lynch
40%Avoid
Phil Town (Rule #1)
9%Avoid

Investor model analysis

Details locked

At $161.48, 4 of 4 frameworks say Avoid

Business Quality27/100

Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Warren Buffett's valuation model · select an investor above to switch

Intrinsic Value

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Buy Below

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Strong Buy

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Margin of Safety

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Insider & congress activity

Are insiders buying VST?

Over recent SEC Form 4 filings, VST insiders bought $1.2M and sold $73.9M of stock across 30 open-market trades. Insiders sell for many reasons, but they buy for one.

Bought $1.2MSold $73.9M
Recent open-market insider trades for VST
InsiderActionSharesValueDate
Moldovan Kristopher E.EVP and CFOSell20,000$3.3MOct 7, 2026
HUDSON SCOTT AEVP & President Vistra RetailSell22,222$3.6MOct 6, 2026
Moldovan Kristopher E.EVP and CFOSell20,000$3.0MSep 8, 2026
HUDSON SCOTT AEVP & President Vistra RetailSell7,777$1.2MSep 8, 2026
HUDSON SCOTT AEVP & President Vistra RetailSell28,826$4.4MSep 8, 2026

Members of Congress have also reported 23 trades in VST. See the full insider & congress timeline.

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Open-market buys & sells only. Not investment advice.

See the interactive insider chart & every trade

Scenario analysis

Bear, base & bull

Three growth assumptions, three fair values — and where today's price lands

What's working

Key strengths

Identified by Buffett framework analysis

Return on Equity

Positive Free Cash Flow

Cash Flow Quality

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Company financials

5-Year Financials

Income statement highlights — annual, USD

Metric20252024202320222021
Revenue$17.0B
$19.4B
$15.5B
$17.8B
$13.3B
Rev. Growth-12.4%+24.7%-12.9%+33.8%—
Net Income$944M$2.7B$1.5B-$1.2B-$1.3B
Net Margin5.6%13.7%9.6%-6.9%-9.6%
EPS (Diluted)$2.21$7.16$3.63$-3.26$-2.62
Free Cash FlowLocked — upgrade to viewLocked — upgrade to viewLocked — upgrade to viewLocked — upgrade to viewLocked — upgrade to view

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See the complete picture for VST

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Data as of Oct 8, 2026. Sourced from SEC filings & Financial Modeling Prep.

Educational Use Only · Not Financial Advice

Analysis, scores, valuations, and buy zones are derived from publicly documented investor frameworks (Buffett, Lynch, Benjamin Graham, Phil Town) for learning purposes only. They are not recommendations from licensed financial advisors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.