Is Vistra Corp. (VST) Undervalued? Valuation & Fair Price
At $161.48, 4 of the 4 frameworks would pass on Vistra Corp. today — Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch, and Phil Town (Rule #1) rate it Avoid. Each model calculates its own fair value and margin of safety; create a free account to see the exact buy price behind every verdict.
Vistra Corp.
VSTUtilities · Independent Power Producers · NYSE
$161.48
P/E 24.5×
Vistra Corp., along with its various holdings, functions as a unified entity primarily engaged in retail electricity supply and power generation. The company organizes its operations across six distinct segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It directly provides electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial clients throughout 20 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. Beyond its retail endeavors, Vistra also participates in generating electricity, facilitating wholesale energy transactions, managing commodity-related risks, producing fuel, and overseeing fuel logistics. With approximately 4.3 million customers, Vistra commands an impressive generation capacity of about 38,700 megawatts. This capacity is sustained by a diverse portfolio of facilities, including those powered by natural gas, nuclear energy, coal, solar, and advanced battery energy storage systems. The enterprise, initially known as Vistra Energy Corp., adopted its current name, Vistra Corp., in July 2020. Tracing its origins back to 1882, Vistra Corp. maintains its corporate headquarters in Irving, Texas.
Investor scorecard
How the four investors rate Vistra Corp.
4 of 4 frameworks urge caution
Investor model analysis
Details lockedAt $161.48, 4 of 4 frameworks say Avoid
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Warren Buffett's valuation model · select an investor above to switch
Intrinsic Value
Locked — upgrade to viewBuy Below
Locked — upgrade to viewStrong Buy
Locked — upgrade to viewMargin of Safety
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Insider & congress activity
Are insiders buying VST?
Over recent SEC Form 4 filings, VST insiders bought $1.2M and sold $73.9M of stock across 30 open-market trades. Insiders sell for many reasons, but they buy for one.
| Insider | Action | Shares | Value | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldovan Kristopher E.EVP and CFO | Sell | 20,000 | $3.3M | Oct 7, 2026 |
| HUDSON SCOTT AEVP & President Vistra Retail | Sell | 22,222 | $3.6M | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Moldovan Kristopher E.EVP and CFO | Sell | 20,000 | $3.0M | Sep 8, 2026 |
| HUDSON SCOTT AEVP & President Vistra Retail | Sell | 7,777 | $1.2M | Sep 8, 2026 |
| HUDSON SCOTT AEVP & President Vistra Retail | Sell | 28,826 | $4.4M | Sep 8, 2026 |
Members of Congress have also reported 23 trades in VST. See the full insider & congress timeline.
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Open-market buys & sells only. Not investment advice.
See the interactive insider chart & every tradeScenario analysis
Bear, base & bull
Three growth assumptions, three fair values — and where today's price lands
What's working
Key strengths
Identified by Buffett framework analysis
Return on Equity
Positive Free Cash Flow
Cash Flow Quality
Risk factors & concerns — free account
UnlockCompany financials
5-Year Financials
Income statement highlights — annual, USD
| Metric | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.0B | $19.4B | $15.5B | $17.8B | $13.3B |
| Rev. Growth | -12.4% | +24.7% | -12.9% | +33.8% | — |
| Net Income | $944M | $2.7B | $1.5B | -$1.2B | -$1.3B |
| Net Margin | 5.6% | 13.7% | 9.6% | -6.9% | -9.6% |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.21 | $7.16 | $3.63 | $-3.26 | $-2.62 |
| Free Cash Flow | Locked — upgrade to view | Locked — upgrade to view | Locked — upgrade to view | Locked — upgrade to view | Locked — upgrade to view |
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Data as of Oct 8, 2026. Sourced from SEC filings & Financial Modeling Prep.
Educational Use Only · Not Financial Advice
Analysis, scores, valuations, and buy zones are derived from publicly documented investor frameworks (Buffett, Lynch, Benjamin Graham, Phil Town) for learning purposes only. They are not recommendations from licensed financial advisors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.